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Latest Posts

Internet Stocks Weekly Losing Streak Nearing Bull Market Record

by Tom Bowley

Unless there's a reversal on Friday, the Dow Jones U.S. Internet Index ($DJUSNS) will close lower for the fourth consecutive week, equaling its longest losing streak since the DJUSNS bottomed in late 2008.  There's a decent chance a new record could be set next week as the weekly negative divergence continues to play out.  Here's a look at the current technical picture: The last...  Read More

DP Bulletin: S&P 100 and Nasdaq 100 ST Trend Models Switch Back to NEUTRAL

by Carl Swenlin

Today both the S&P 100 ($OEX) and Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) Indexes switched from Short-Term Trend Model BUY signals to NEUTRAL, when their 5EMAs crossed back down through their 20EMAs. With only two days since the last signal changes, this is more annoying whipsaw, but I think these signals will hold for a while. I'll be making a full assessment in tomorrow's DP Weekly Wrap. Today's decline was a...  Read More

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STOCKS HAVE A BAD DAY -- S&P 500 FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL IN A MONTH

by John Murphy

S&P 500 FALLS TO SIX-WEEK LOW... Selling pressure resumed with a vengeance today. And a lot of support levels have been broken. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 falling back below it 50-day average to the lowest level in more than a month. Volume was higher. More serious damage was done to smaller stocks. Chart 2 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index...  Read More

Commodities Countdown Video Recording 2017-08-17

by Greg Schnell

This week's Commodities Countdown Recording 2017-08-17 has a significant portion on breadth for the US Indexes. With the NASDAQ 100 Bullish Percent Index at 52%, we have been warned that a break lower is easily possible from here. Commodities Countdown Video With Greg Schnell 2017-08-17 from  Read More

NASDAQ 100 Again Gets Turned Back At Key Resistance

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, August 16, 2017 All of our major indices finished higher on Wednesday and seven of our nine sectors finished higher as well.  The primary laggard on the session?  Energy (XLE, -0.96%).  Go figure.  A significant reason for the XLE's renewed relative weakness has been the reversal in crude oil prices ($WTIC).  Since opening  Read More

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Medical Devices ETF Bids to End Correction - Analyzing the Top Stocks - Scanning a ChartList

by Arthur Hill

.... Medical Devices ETF Bids to End Correction .... An ETF is Only as Good as it's Component Stocks  .... Scanning for Trends with a ChartList .... Charting the Top Five IHI Stocks .... Abbot Surges off Support .... Thermo Fisher Consolidates after Gap .... Danaher Bounces after Support Break .... Boston Scientific Firms in Retracement Zone ....  Medical Devices ETF Bids to End...  Read More

Erin's Hits: Another PMO Scan for MarketWatchers

by Erin Heim

** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated ** During the MarketWatchers LIVE program (airs 12:00p - 1:30p EST M/W/F), Tom Bowley and I have started a segment called "Anatomy of a Trade" where we go through our process for identifying investment  Read More

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RUSSELL 2000 FINDS SUPPORT AT 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SO HAVE THE DOW TRANSPORTS

by John Murphy

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT TO TRACK THE PERFORMANCE OF SMALLER STOCKS... One of the concerns expressed recently by several technical analysts (including myself) has been the relatively weak performance by small stocks. That's because they often tell us more about the true state of the stock market than major market indexes that are capitalization weighted and, as a result, dominated by the  Read More

Mind the Gap in AMAT

by Arthur Hill

The long-term trend for Applied Materials (AMAT), a big semiconductor equipment manufacturer, is clearly up and the short-term trend could be turning up again with a gap three days ago. The chart below shows AMAT hitting a 52-week high in early June and then forming a large triangle. This is basically a large consolidation within an uptrend, which means it is a bullish continuation pattern. A...  Read More

Commodity Countries Try To Rotate To Leadership

by Greg Schnell

Julius's de Kempenaer's RRG charts do a great job of visualizing the market rotation. The falling $USD made most investments in foreign markets do well. Some foreign markets have been dropping for three months in local currencies (France, Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia) but the charts priced in US Dollars made them look stellar. With the dollar stabilizing the last few weeks, these...  Read More

Strong Retail Sales Leads To.....Awful Performance By Retailers. Huh?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, August 15, 2017 July retail sales doubled expectations (+0.6% actual vs +0.3% consensus estimate) and we saw the kind of reaction in the bond market that we'd expect with treasury prices tumbling and treasury yields spiking.  But what happened to retail stocks?  They fell out of bed with the S&P Retail ETF (XRT) dropping 2.7% and closing  Read More

Time To Clean Out Your Portfolio?

by Greg Schnell

The discussion about market tops seems to dominate most of the news. With the exception of severe market collapses, usually the market rotates through different sectors in the business cycle, even during down times. The market top in 2015 saw Clorox rise 30% in the next year while the index pulled back. Recently, my eye was drawn to Clorox (CLX), looking for a strong, defensive stock. If  Read More

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HOME IMPROVEMENT STOCKS LEAD CYCLICALS LOWER -- AMAZON HAS ALSO WEAKENED

by John Murphy

HOME DEPOT AND LOWES TUMBLE... Heavy selling in retail stocks is weighing on cyclical stocks which are the one of the day's weakest sectors. Home improvement stocks are the day's weakest group in that sector. Chart 1 shows Home Depot (HD) losing nearly -3% and falling below its 50-day moving average. Chart 2 shows Lowes Companies (LOW) in a similar...  Read More

Misunderstanding Average

by Greg Morris

Did you hear about the six-foot tall Texan that drowned while wading across a stream that averaged only 3 feet deep?  The "World of Finance" is fraught with misleading information.  The use of average is one that needs a discussion. Figure A shows how easily it is to be confused over what is average.  And of course, this time it is intentional.  This example should put it in...  Read More

Monday Was A Bullish Kind Of Rebound

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, August 14, 2017 When the stock market goes up, I want to see money rotate towards aggressive areas and we definitely saw that on Monday.  Technology (XLK, +1.59%), financials (XLF, +1.37%) and industrials (XLI, +1.05%) were the three big winners on the session and they're all considered aggressive sectors.  I also like to see wide  Read More

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Transport ETF Holds Breakout, Semiconductor ETF Holds Support, Fab 5 Tech Stocks

by Arthur Hill

.... Transport ETF Bounces off Key Retracement  .... Airline ETF Returns to Breakout Zone .... Railroad Stocks are in Uptrends .... XSD Bounces of Support .... Diodes and Skyworks Turn Up .... Microsoft, Facebook and Apple Lead the Fab Five .... Pfizer Shows Good Volume Trends .... Thor Surges off Gap Zone ....  Transport ETF Bounces off Key Retracement  I don't follow the...  Read More

Erin's Hits: Bear Market PMO Scan Screens a Few "Dogs"

by Erin Heim

** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated ** With the market overbought and ready for at least a pullback, I decided to run one of my bear market Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) scans to see if I could find a  Read More

8/14 - MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Monday Setups - Candlesticks - 10 in 10

by Tom Bowley

Welcome to the recap of Monday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads.  Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00pm - 1:30pm EST shows, but the MWL blog will give you a quick recap.  Be sure and check  Read More

DP Bulletin: Three New Short-Term Signals

by Carl Swenlin

On Friday the S&P 100 ($OEX) and Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) had Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) signal changes from BUY to NEUTRAL. Today they switched back to BUY. The dreaded whipsaw again. Also, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) had a short-term PMO signal change from BUY to SELL. The two charts below show the whipsaw STTM signal changes for $OEX and $NDX -- the 5EMAs crossed back up...  Read More

A Big Dow Component is Turning Up Again

by Arthur Hill

The Dow Industrials is in a clear uptrend with a fresh 52-week high just last week. Note that this senior Average is hitting these new highs without much help from its second largest component, Goldman Sachs. For reference, the Dow Diamonds (DIA) is up around 13% year-to-date and GS is down around 3.5%. The Dow is a price-weighted average and this means the stock with the highest price carries...  Read More

Evaluating The Technical Damage Inflicted On The S&P 500

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, August 11, 2017 Here's a fact:  The benchmark S&P 500, along with all the major U.S. indices, had a rough week last week.  Traders aren't used to weekly declines of more than 1%, yet that's exactly what we got last week.  The S&P 500 lost 1.43%, its second worst week since the November 2016 uptrend began.  Based on that alone...  Read More

8/11 - MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Talking Technically - 10 in 10 - Gold Analysis

by Tom Bowley

Welcome to the recap of Friday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads.  Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00pm - 1:30pm EST shows, but the MWL blog will give you a quick recap.  Be sure and check  Read More

Small Caps Break Down; Where's Support?

by Tom Bowley

The Russell 2000 fell for the third consecutive week and its 2.70% loss last week fell below its rising 20 week EMA for only the second time in 2017.  It was a significant violation and now this index is staring at key price and moving average support in the 1340-1350 zone: Note that the rising 50 week SMA is currently at 1349, providing further support in that 1340-1350 area.  Read More

Wyckoff the International Language

by Bruce Fraser

Golden Gate University's technical analysis courses are in demand from students around the globe. The Wyckoff classes that Dr. Pruden and I teach welcomes students from many countries. These students, applying the Wyckoff Methodology, present stock case studies to the class. Often the international students highlight stocks listed on their home country exchange. It becomes evident to...  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: NoKo Stumble (Supposedly)

by Carl Swenlin

In October 1962 I was a 21-year-old B-47 aircraft mechanic in the Strategic Air Command. One morning that month I reported for duty only to find the aircraft ramp covered with bombers loaded with nuclear weapons. Welcome to the Cuban Missile Crisis. It was pretty tense for a few weeks, and we got to DEFCON 2, just one click below the highest level of readiness, DEFCON 1. In hindsight I don't...  Read More

DP Bulletin: Three New Signals Generated

by Carl Swenlin

Today there were three signal changes: The S&P 100 Index ($OEX) and Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) had Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) signals change from BUY to NEUTRAL. And the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) intermediate-term PMO BUY signal changed to SELL. The two daily charts of $OEX and $NDX below show the 5EMA crossing down through the 20EMA, generating STTM NEUTRAL signals. The $NDX weekly chart below...  Read More

The Investor's Curse: "If It Ain't Broke, We Fix It Until It Is"

by Gatis Roze

This phrase is most often heard in reference to lawmakers and bureaucrats in Washington, DC, but I think it's an appropriate reflection of what many investors struggle with as well.  As an investor, you'll seldom be destroyed by outside forces.  If you falter and lose your assets, more often than not it will be because you ignored your own rules and disciplines, thereby destroying...  Read More

Small Cap Stocks Show Significant Weakness

by Tushar Chande

Small cap stocks have broken down in a noteworthy way, as the down-move I anticipated roils the market. Typically, weakness in small cap stocks is an early warning of weakness in their larger cousins.  First, a majority of stocks in the S&P  Read More

Gold Miners Break A Down Trend

by Greg Schnell

The Gold space is particularly interesting this week. It marks 1 year since gold miners GDX topped out in 2016. The GDX printed a high of $31.70 on August 12th, 2016. GLD was already making lower highs. But the week brings a new chapter in GDX as well. The gold miners ETF (GDX) broke a significant downtrend with yesterdays close. There will be lots of eyes watching to see...  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (w/ Video) - A New High and a Big Decline

by Arthur Hill

.... RSP Takes a Big Hit after New High .... Small-caps and Mid-caps Lead Breadth Lower .... AD Volume Lines Turn Down .... SPY Closes below 50-day EMA .... IJR Pulls Back within Grinding Uptrend .... Sector Balance Remains Long-term Bullish .... Finance, Technology and Utilities Lead .... Industrials-Healthcare Correct within Uptrends  .... Consumer Staples is the Second Weakest Sector ...  Read More

Key Support Levels Lost, Futures Weak; How Low Do We Go?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, August 10, 2017 Technology (XLK, -1.97%) and financials (XLF, -1.78) led a steep selloff in equities on Thursday.  It wasn't the worst day of the year for the NASDAQ, but it was pretty close.  That aggressive index lost both its 20 day EMA and 50 day SMA yesterday and futures are lower again this morning.  Prepare for more weakness...  Read More

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US Stock Market Showing More Near-term Weakness

by Martin Pring

More stock market indicators showing weakness Bonds close to a breakout Commodity rally over? Dollar bottoming or about to break down? More stock market indicators showing weakness Last week I made the case for a correction in the market based on some specific...  Read More

DP Bulletin: S&P 100 ($OEX) Generates ST PMO SELL Signal; S&P 500 Generates ST Trend Model NEUTRAL Signal

by Carl Swenlin

Today the S&P 100 Index ($OEX) daily PMO crossed down through its signal line and generated a short-term PMO SELL signal. Of the four major indexes on our score board, three have switched to short-term PMO SELL signals. Additionally, the S&P 500 Index 5EMA crossed down through the 20EMA, generating a Short-Term Trend Model NEUTRAL signal. Yesterday the same signal was generated on the...  Read More

Commodities Countdown Video Recording 2017-08-10

by Greg Schnell

Lots of action in Commodities this week.  The Gold and Silver charts are very interesting and I covered them off in the last 10 minutes of the recording. Oil is holding, but the oil stocks are continuing to go lower.  With global markets softening a bit and the NASDAQ 100 really reflecting some weakness on the BPI charts, some caution has arrived.  Read More

NetEase.com Getting Crushed After Earnings; The Bad News? The Selling Isn't Over

by Tom Bowley

After the bell on Wednesday, NetEase.com (NTES) was hammered as its Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $3.86 fell short of Wall Street consensus estimates of $4.07.  While that was bad enough from a fundamental perspective, the technical conditions had already begun to deteriorate in the form of a weekly negative divergence on its MACD.  That is a signal of slowing upside price momentum and...  Read More

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VOLATILITY SPIKES AS MARKET SELLOFF CONTINUES -- VIX INDEX CLIMBS TO THREE-MONTH HIGH AND PLAYS CATCH-UP TO RISING NASDAQ 100 VOLATILITY INDEX

by John Murphy

SMALL AND MID SIZE STOCK INDEXES BREAK SUPPORT... Yesterday's message showed small and midcap stock indexes testing support at their July lows, and warned that any further weakness would be bad for them and the rest of the market. Both indexes have broken support levels and are now leading the market lower. Chart 1 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index falling to the...  Read More

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SystemTrader - Tempering Volatility by Using RSI to Rank Stocks

by Arthur Hill

.... An Attempt to Lower the Drawdowns .... Strategy Review  .... Consulting, Software and Data .... Rate-of-Change versus RSI .... A High-Flyer versus a Boring Uptrend .... Testing with 14-day RSI Rank .... Conclusions and Caveat Emptor .... Scan Code ....     An Attempt to Lower the Drawdowns Last week I presented a  Read More

Stocks Recover After Early Drop; Futures Weak Again

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, August 9, 2017 U.S. equities were under early fire on Wednesday, but there was a steady recovery throughout the balance of the day with little technical damage done by session end.  The Russell 2000 was one exception, however, as that aggressive small cap index closed beneath 1400 for the first time in the past 6-7 weeks.  That weak...  Read More

Erin's Hits: What's the Difference Between an Ascending Wedge and an Ascending Triangle?

by Erin Heim

** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated **   I recently received a question from one of the attendees of yesterday's webinar (recording available here). I was reviewing the charts in our DP Chart Gallery as well as symbol requests and often referred to ascending triangle patterns and ascending wedge patterns.  Read More

8/9 - MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Agree or Disagree - SCTR Movers - 10 in 10

by Tom Bowley

Welcome to the recap of Wednesday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads.  Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00pm - 1:30pm EST shows, but the MWL blog will give you a quick recap.  Be sure and check...  Read More