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Latest Posts

Commodities Countdown Video Recording 2017-07-20

by Greg Schnell

This weeks Commodities Countdown Video Recording 2017-07-20 continues to discuss the emergence of various commodity markets starting to rally.  A low Friday close on the US Dollar this week confirms the new bear market signal for the dollar as I have been discussing for the last few weeks. If you are looking for names in the oil and gas stocks, we investigated the stocks that are...  Read More

Biotechs Surge Again To New Highs

by Tom Bowley

Biotechnology stocks ($DJUSBT) are among the best performing stocks since the beginning of June with an approximate 16% gain over the past seven weeks.  It's not unusual for biotechs to remain on a tear for an extended period of time so pullbacks should be considered for entry.  The rising 20 day EMA is one such level to consider after a bout of selling as the weakness from late June...  Read More

What's going on in Materials? (XLB)

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the constituents of the Materials sector (XLB). The picture shows a fairly evenly distributed pattern with no real stocks standing out, maybe with the exception of MOS as it has the longest tail of all stocks on the graph while being at the lowest JdK RS-Ratio reading. In my sector analysis in the  Read More

Oil Stocks Start To Rally

by Greg Schnell

The Energy Sector spent the first six months of the year in the divorce section of most portfolios. Holding energy stocks was extremely painful while technology and biotech rallied. Most Commodities were pulling back for the first half and the associated stocks were as well. For those following the video recordings, we have been hunting for a seasonal low in energy stocks starting in early...  Read More

Coal And Renewable Energy Surge To Lead U.S. Equities To Fresh Highs

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, July 19, 2017 Energy (XLE, +1.46%) and materials (XLB, +0.96%) led the major U.S. indices to all-time highs on Wednesday, with particular strength in coal ($DJUSCL) and renewable energy ($DWCREE), which rose 6.36% and 3.08%, respectively.  The former's strength comes on the heels of a bottoming head & shoulders breakout as reflected below:...  Read More

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Confidence Indicators And Small Caps Point To Higher Stock Prices

by Martin Pring

What is a confidence indicator? Credit Spreads to the rescue Equity market spreads Growth versus Value Small caps: Are we there yet? Washington may be suffering from acute dysfunction but Wall Street doesn't seem to care, or perhaps knows something that we mere mortals do not. Failure to agree on healthcare reform this week should have been a great excuse for an overbought market to take...  Read More

7/19 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Upgrades/Downgrades - Market Movers - Agree or Disagree?

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Wednesday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but here's a quick recap. Be sure and check out the  Read More

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WEAK DOLLAR HELPS BOOST EMERGING MARKETS -- EM CURRENCIES AND STOCKS ARE RISING TOGETHER

by John Murphy

FALLING DOLLAR BOOSTS EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES... One of my recent messages explained that a weak dollar was contributing to money flows into foreign markets. That's because American investors get the dual benefit of rising foreign currencies as well as stocks. That's been especially true in emerging markets. A weak dollar is generally good for that asset class. Chart 1 compares the...  Read More

Internet Stocks Break Out, Lead Technology And NASDAQ

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, July 18, 2017 It was a rough June for technology stocks and, more specifically, internet stocks ($DJUSNS), but they've both rebounding during an exceptional July.  It appears that traders have re-entered this space in anticipation of very strong upcoming quarterly earnings reports.  It's been several weeks since I could say this, but the  Read More

Which metals hold the most value at the moment?

by Julius de Kempenaer

The above Relative Rotation Graph holds the main commodity groups (BCOM family) and uses the Bloomberg Commodity Index as the benchmark. The opposite directions in the rotations of Industrial metals ($BCOMINTR) and Precious metals ($BCOMPRTR) stand out for me. As they are both on the right-hand side of the graph we can conclude that the relative trend against $BCOMTR is positive. If you open up...  Read More

DP Alert: All-Time Highs Create New Support Level for SPY

by Erin Heim

No new changes to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, although if you didn't read about it last Friday, we did see FOUR new PMO BUY signals on all four indexes. The only "red" on the Scoreboards are on the IT PMO signals which are found on the weekly charts. You can take a look at all of the Scoreboard weekly charts annotated in the DecisionPoint  Read More

Adobe (ADBE) Processes New Highs Again

by Greg Schnell

Adobe (ADBE) continues to find new ways to hit the new highs list. Recently I have been using some of Adobe's online forms and have been amazed by all the interesting software application techniques. The stock move suggests I am not the only one noticing something in Adobe's software. After consolidating for 2-months, the stock is pushing to new highs on a flat day for the...  Read More

Small Stocks Close At Fresh All-Time High

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, July 17, 2017 It seems that every major U.S. index is taking its turn at all-time highs and on Monday small cap stocks stepped up to the plate, closing at 1431.60, its highest close ever.  It's interesting because it did so on a day when late day selling spoiled what would have been all-time highs for both the Dow Jones and S&P 500.  It's...  Read More

WHY Standard Deviation is a Poor Measure of Risk

by Greg Morris

I will attempt to show that high sigma is a much more frequent event than modern finance thinks it is.  A few examples using the Dow Industrials back to 1885 on a daily basis are shown.  Each begins with determining a look-back period to determine the average daily return and the standard deviation, and then a look-forward period is determined to see if the look-back data continues  Read More

7/17 - MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Monday Set-Ups - DP Report - Earnings Spotlight

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Monday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but the MWL Blog will give you a quick recap. Be sure and check out the...  Read More

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STRONG ECONONIC NEWS IN CHINA BOOSTS BASE METALS -- MINING ETFS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY

by John Murphy

CHINESE ECONOMY EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS... China's economy grew by 6.9% during the second quarter which exceeded market expectations. That's one of the explanations behind today's jump in industrial metals like copper, iron ore, and zinc. Mining stocks that produce those commodities are also having a strong day. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Base Metals Fund (DBB) climbing...  Read More

Hortonworks (HDP) Hears The Howl Of Fresh Highs

by Greg Schnell

HortonWorks (HDP) had its initial public offering a few years ago. The first year was a sell off, the second year built a base and in May, HDP broke out to fresh 52-week highs for the first time ever. After consolidating around the breakout level of $12.85, this morning HDP broke out from the consolidation. As technology has been leading for a while, this stock has been climbing since...  Read More

Long Awaited Bank Earnings Were A Dud.....Or Were They?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, July 14, 2017 JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), PNC Financial (PNC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) were a formidable sample of bank stocks ($DJUSBK) reporting earnings last Friday and it was set up to be a very interesting trading day - to see if the huge run up in the DJUSBK was justified.  JPM, C and PNC all reported beats on both their top and bottom...  Read More

Texas Roadhouse Might Whet Your Appetite

by Tom Bowley

When money begins rotating to defense in a big way, I look for topping patterns in the market.  But when we're in the midst of a full-fledged bull market - as we are now - I'd much rather search for stocks in bullish continuation patterns.  That brings me to Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH).  There is lots to like here, besides the food.  Below features a very strong ascending...  Read More

Solar Stocks Start Shining

by Greg Schnell

Solar stocks are starting to shine after a year in the unloved corned of the market. First Solar is the industry leader and a Don't Ignore This Chart article was published on it in June. There are some others in the group starting to perform as well. Sunpower..  Read More

Bond Yields Drop, Falling Rates Boost Technology Stocks

by John Murphy

BOND YIELDS DROP ON LACK OF INFLATION ... June's CPI report showed no change from the previous month, reflecting the absence of inflation. Its annual gain of 1.6% was the smallest since last October. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI saw a modest monthly bounce of 0.1% (for an annual rate of 1.7%). The main reason why the core CPI is slightly higher than the headline number is the...  Read More

Risks Associated with Earnings Reports

by John Hopkins

Q2 Earnings Season is underway with 4 of the nations largest banks reporting their numbers Friday and thousands of companies getting ready to report over the next few weeks. Earnings season brings with it both the highs and lows of trading. We'll see companies that beat expectations and move higher and others that beat and move lower. We'll also see companies that miss expectations and move  Read More

Go Away In May? Let's Try July

by Tom Bowley

As a stock market historian, if there's one thing that really annoys me, it's the talking heads saying to "go away in May".  While the May through October period is clearly less bullish than its November through April counterpart, there are loads of reasons to be long U.S. equities during May, June, July and October.  Seasonal strength to open and close calendar months is one  Read More

DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap -- Dollar In Trouble

by Carl Swenlin

Rounded top, schmounded top. This week the market couldn't have cared less as it broke through to new, all-time highs. The headline regarding the dollar is not exactly news, but the dollar is getting particularly weak. More on that below. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar,  Read More

Point & Figure Diary

by Bruce Fraser

Regular readers have been following the epic saga dating back to 2011, when Dr. Hank Pruden published his Point and Figure (PnF) count for the new bull market. This count projected to a range of 17,600 to 19,200 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU).  When this objective was met we said: 'But wait, there is more'. Almost exactly a year ago, in this blog, we revisited the original...  Read More

DP Bulletin: FOUR New Short-Term PMO BUY Signals on All Scoreboards

by Erin Heim

There were four new Short-Term PMO BUY signals generated on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards today. The new signal summary is below as well as the charts for your review. Have a great weekend! Helpful DecisionPoint Links: DecisionPoint Shared ChartList and  Read More

7/14 - MarketWatchers LIVE Show Recap - ETF Focus - Agree or Disagree? - Sentiment

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Friday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but we will give you a quick recap. Be sure and check out the  Read More

Investing Tips from Warren Buffet's 2016 Purchase of Apple

by Tushar Chande

Last week I wrote about buying a pull-back from recent highs. Here I will discuss buying a mega pull-back. In a bid to learn from the best, I studied the Berkshire Hathaway entry setup for Apple.  Naturally, I only looked at the technical set up from the charts, since I...  Read More

Update on Sentiment - AAII, NAAIM and Rydex Ratio

by Erin Heim

On Fridays during the MarketWatchers LIVE show (12:00p - 1:30p EST), I do a regular segment that checks what weekly sentiment charts are telling us. Three of the best sentiment charts from DecisionPoint are the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment poll, the National Association of Active Investment Managers...  Read More

100% of Investors from Lake Wobegon Are Above Average

by Gatis Roze

Ninety percent (90%) of Americans believe that they are above average drivers.  Multiple studies have corroborated this impossibility over the years.  I'm certain that the equivalent surveys of American investors would yield a similar fanciful number. It reminds me of Garrison Keillor's radio show featuring Lake Wobegon - the fictitious midwestern town where all of the children are...  Read More

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ANOTHER WEAK CPI REPORT BOOSTS BONDS AND STOCKS -- BOND YIELDS DROP ON EXPECTATIONS FOR LESS AGGRESSIVE FED

by John Murphy

BOND YIELDS DROP ON LACK OF INFLATION ... June's CPI report showed no change from the previous month, reflecting the absence of inflation. Its annual gain of 1.6% was the smallest since last October. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI saw a modest monthly bounce of 0.1% (for an annual rate of 1.7%). The main reason why the core CPI is slightly higher than the headline number is the...  Read More

Xylem (XYL) Breaks Out To New Highs

by Greg Schnell

Xylem (XYL) specializes in water technology and spent this week pushing to new highs. This breakout looks good as it moves above a zone of resistance that has been in place for nine months. What I like most about the chart is the breakout comes after consolidating major gains from early 2016. Water is a growth industry and this chart looks set up to perform. I posted a Commodities Countdown...  Read More

Commodities Countdown Video Recording 2017-07-13

by Greg Schnell

The Commodities Countdown Video Recording 2017-07-13 is posted. There is a lot of information coming to a major confluence. Working through a different set of charts this week, I laid out the case for a potential bull market brewing in Commodities. Just when you least expect it! Commodities Countdown Video With Greg Schnell 2017-07-13 from  Read More

Large Banks Kick Off Earnings Season

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, July 13, 2017 Financials (XLF, +0.60%) rebounded to lead the market action on Thursday, in anticipation of large bank earnings scheduled to be reported this morning.  The Dow Jones U.S. Banks Index ($DJUSBK) remains in a strong technical pattern, but has room to the downside in the event that reported results or guidance is below expectations...  Read More

DP Alert: Indicators Looking Bullish in Short and Intermediate Terms - XLU Triggers IT Trend Model Neutral Signal

by Erin Heim

No changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. They all look the same which might be a little confusing given the bifurcated market we have witnessed over the past few weeks. While most indexes are testing all-time highs, the NDX needs more help and today it couldn't get past the declining tops line. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the  Read More

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CANADA RATE HIKE BOOSTS CURRENCY BUT WEAKENS STOCKS WHICH ARE WEAKEST IN G7 -- HIGHER COMMODITIES PRICES COULD HELP

by John Murphy

CANADA RATE HIKE BOOSTS THE LOONIE... Canada warned that it was about to hike rates, and did it yesterday for the first time in seven years. The Bank of Canada raised its short-term policy rate 25 basis points to 0.75%. That's still below the rate of 1.00% that prevailed between 2010 and 2015. That was before it lowered the rate twice during 2015 in the middle of that year's collapse in...  Read More

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Global Stocks Break To The Upside

by Martin Pring

Some Global Equity Markets Getting Lift-off Again US equities trying to follow the global lead Relative trends favor emerging and Europe Technology poised to move higher In terms of price, global equities have been in a corrective mode since late May, but now appear to be re-asserting their upward trend. Not all markets and sectors are positioned to move higher, but a sufficient number have...  Read More

Equities Surge On Dovish Fed Remarks

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, July 13, 2017 Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided the Fed's semiannual monetary policy to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday morning, just prior to the opening of the stock market and both the bond market and stock market loved what it heard.  The Fed Chair sounded very accommodative and dovish in her remarks and bond prices...  Read More

7/12 - MarketWatchers LIVE Recap

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Wednesday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but here's a quick recap. Be sure and check out the  Read More

Short-Term Trend Model Whipsaws Plague DecisionPoint Scoreboards

by Erin Heim

Yet again, more whipsaw on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) is highly sensitive given that it is based on 5/20-EMA crossovers. However, the main problem we have is consolidation. Price hit all-time highs, but has continued to meander sideways. This will draw the EMAs together and in the case of the 5/20-EMAs, they end up braiding and creating plenty of STTM  Read More