DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of Decisionpoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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Short-Term Swenlin Trading Oscillator Divergence Could be a Serious Warning Sign

by Erin Swenlin

There was one indicator that gave us a very good warning sign just prior to the Jan/Feb correction. The same warning sign is flashing right now. The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) have a breadth version and a volume version. When we see divergent tops on these indicators, bad things tend to happen.  These indicators topped and began moving lower out of overbought territory which is short-term bearish. However, what is more concerning is the negative divergence between the STO-B and STO-V. I only located one other time this year where this negative divergence occurred other than Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Technology Whipsaw

by Carl Swenlin

The technology sector (XLK) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY on Thursday, but reversed from BUY to NEUTRAL on Friday. The problem is that recent sideways price movement has squeezed the 20EMA and 50EMA very close together, and price movement above or below the EMAs can cause whipsaw signals. To review, our Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) changes to BUY when the 20EMA crosses up through the 50EMA. The signal changes to NEUTRAL when a 20/50EMA downside crossover takes place above the 200EMA. If XLK rallies above the EMAs on Monday, a new BUY signal will be generated; however, the daily PMO Read More 

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Tech Sector (XLK) Clicks to IT Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

As noted in the DecisionPoint Sector Scoreboard, a new IT Trend Model BUY signal was added. Before this BUY signal, there were only two sectors on IT BUY signals and they were in somewhat defensive areas of the market, Utilities and Energy. It is good news to see this BUY signal back for the sector with the highest cap-weight and an aggressive area of the market. As I wrote yesterday, the market was short-term overbought and today's decline was likely the beginning of a small pullback. This new BUY signal suggests that the market should right itself in the intermediate term. Read More 

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DP Alert: Will Dollar Ever Breakout? - Market Short-Term Overbought

by Erin Swenlin

This week the DP Scoreboards turned short-term bullish. Unfortunately, I suspect this breakout won't hold long if the short-term indicators continue to stretch into very overbought territory. Although the Scoreboards show intermediate-term neutral to bearish, the intermediate-term market indicators suggest we likely have seen the lows for the correction and may very well side-step a bear market. The IT Trend Model signals on the Scoreboards is determined by 20/50-EMA crossovers, so it will take some more time to see those crossovers which is why the ITBM and ITVM indicator set is so useful Read More 

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Major Shakeup on DecisionPoint Scoreboards - Short-Term BUY Signals Everywhere

by Erin Swenlin

Since Friday, the DecisionPoint Scoreboards have been adding short-term buy signal after short-term buy signal. With today's breakouts from consolidation zones, I believe they are timely. You may be wondering what it would take to start seeing BUY signals in the intermediate term. The IT Trend Model signals are based on 20/50-EMA crossovers in relation to the 200-EMA. We would need to see the 20-EMA leap over the 50-EMA in order to see an ITTM BUY signal. To get an IT PMO BUY signal, the weekly PMOs need a positive crossover their signal lines. All four weekly PMOs are in decline, though Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Weak Volume Undermines Rally

by Carl Swenlin

Market action was a little choppy this week, but SPY managed to eke out a small gain; unfortunately, volume was weak and did not confirm the rally. The PMO bottomed and crossed up through the signal line, giving a PMO BUY signal. But the PMO is running kind of flat, so that signal looks a bit thin. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. SECTORS Each S&P 500 Index component stock Read More 

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DP Bulletin #2: OEX Hops Aboard the PMO BUY Signal Train

by Erin Swenlin

Another new signal to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, the OEX has logged a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal to join the Dow which triggered its PMO BUY signal yesterday. The NDX PMO has some distance to close before we'll see its signal change. Tomorrow, the SPX will change to a PMO BUY signal, the PMO only missed that BUY signal by less than .01. The double-top on the OEX triggered when price dropped below the confirmation line at the early March low. It fell and successfully tested support at the February low and has since been chopping around between Read More 

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DP Bulletin: Dow is First to Regain Short-Term PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

The Dow is the first to shed it's previous Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL signal. The SELL signal had been in place since 2/2/18. Found it interesting that the earliest PMO SELL signal on the DP Scoreboards managed to move to a BUY signal before all of the more recent March PMO SELL signals on the OEX, SPX and NDX. However, if you look at the charts, you'll see that the SPX and OEX whipsawed their PMO signals which moved the date up. The NDX just took longer given the strong positive momentum it had during the parabolic rally. The PMO BUY Read More 

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Small-Cap ETFs In Trouble - Possible Head and Shoulders Formations

by Erin Swenlin

After the market close, my technical alert activated on IJR, the S&P 600 ETF with a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal. I noted that this same signal has already been hit on IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF. While I believe we are in a consolidation or shake out with a follow-up rally likely coming in the market, I'm not yet convinced the bull market is or will resume anytime soon. I'm sure it hasn't passed notice that Carl and I have been more bearish than most based on sector rotation study, our indicators and now I'm seeing small-cap charts setting up for decline, not rebound Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Choppy Week Closes Down

by Carl Swenlin

On the SPY chart last week I thought I saw a reverse flag formation, although it was not as tightly defined as I would like. This week the market thrashed around pretty badly, and although the flag didn't become more visible, there is still a ragged cluster of price bars that, in my opinion, serves the same purpose. A case can still be made for a double bottom, but I think the ragged cluster is a continuation pattern calling for lower prices. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock Read More 

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Indicators - ST Overbought with Negative Divergences Sprinkled on Top

by Erin Swenlin

It was heady to feel the bullish exuberance pulsing around the MarketWatchers LIVE show, but now that the day is over and the indicators are ready for review. I was seriously disappointed not to see the supporting evidence I wanted so I too could enjoy some bullish exuberance. Our poll question today was a bit unfair, but certainly represented the excitement and poked a little fun about not being on the bull band wagon. The current results are below. Note my vote was "stuck in neutral". I still feel good about that vote, especially after reviewing DecisionPoint indicators. Read More 

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