DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

DecisionPoint

Two EMA "Death Crosses" on NDX and SPX = LT Trend Model SELLs

by Erin Swenlin

I've always thought the moniker "death cross" was terribly dramatic (and I still do). However, this time around, it does seem ominous. The SPX lost its Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal, a signal that had been in place since early 2016. These signals don't come very often, so we should always take heed when they do arrive. Not only did we see those LTTM BUY signals disappear, we lost 3 out of 4 Short-Term PMO BUY signals. The Scoreboards are looking ugly.  Below are the daily charts of all four Scoreboard indexes. Today's turnaround was Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Still In Trading Range Despite Fireworks

by Carl Swenlin

There will probably be a lot of people mentioning that today there was a "Death Cross" on the S&P 500 chart, and this is important because a Death Cross means that the price index has entered a bear market. Specifically, on the $SPX chart (not shown) the 50-day simple moving average crossed down through the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). I don't use SMAs because I believe exponential moving averages (EMAs) behave more rationally. And for signal generation and trading decisions I track SPY instead of $SPX, which can actually be traded. Also, like stocks, SPY is adjusted for Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly/Monthly Wrap: The Monkey Did It

by Carl Swenlin

I usually spend my days at my desk noodling on the computer, reading, and casually watching business television with the sound off. (My idea of retirement.) With no sound to distract/annoy me, the most dangerous part of the TV watching is the endless stream of headline banners that announce why the market is doing whatever it is doing at a given moment. The danger comes from my usual eye-rolling reaction to most of the headlines, a reaction which can be so severe as to nearly flip me over the back of my chair. Once in a while there is no doubt that a certain news item, like Fed Chair Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Bulletin: ST PMO BUY Signals on all Four Scoreboards - ITTM BUY for Very Bullish Healthcare SPDR (XLV)

by Erin Swenlin

This is just a quick summary of the new DecisionPoint signals that came in. Yesterday, the SPX logged a new ST PMO BUY Signal on the "relief rally." Despite declines on the remaining indexes, they all managed to trigger new ST PMO BUY signals. I'm not looking at these new buy signals as the end of the correction; I suspect they will fail next week. Additionally, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) triggered a new IT Trend Model BUY signal.  I've annotated the charts for the OEX, DOW and NDX below so you can see the new PMO BUY signals. An important note Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Dovish Fed = Relief Rally + New PMO BUY Signal for SPX

by Erin Swenlin

In the midst of recording this morning's MarketWatchers LIVE show, the Fed Chairman Powell's remarks were released. They were dovish and the market rallied in relief. The rally was strong enough to pull the ST Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) upward and trigger a new BUY signal. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. SECTORS Each S&P 500 Index component stock is assigned to Read More 

DecisionPoint

Rising Dollar Logs New PMO BUY Signal - IT Picture Bullish

by Erin Swenlin

The Dollar has been plugging along quietly in a gently rising trend channel, while the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has moved right along with it. A little over a week ago, the PMO crossed below its signal line and logged a PMO SELL signal. Today's rally saw an intraday high that hasn't been reached since early 2017, so it wasn't a surprise to see the PMO accelerate above its signal line for a new BUY signal. I'm liking this BUY signal. The PMO, although logging a recent SELL signal, is trending higher. Peaks have been steadily increasing Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Looks Like a Bear to Me

by Carl Swenlin

This monthly chart doesn't become final until the end of this month (next Friday), but there is strong evidence here that we are in a bear market. The cyclical bull market rising trend line has been decisively broken, and the monthly PMO is below the signal line and falling. This is not an infallible indication of a bear market, but it is a fairly reliable one. In the time frame shown on this chart we can see two prior instances where the monthly PMO was similarly configured -- the 2007-2009 bear market, and the one-year correction in 2015. A rally back above the trend line is possible Read More 

DecisionPoint

PMO Preludes to Bear Markets - New PMO SELL Signals on Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

The Price Momentum Oscillators (PMOs) seem to have a few unusual characteristics in the period before bear markets. I believe that the current PMO set-up on the SPX is dangerously close to mimicking those bear market preludes. I decided to do a historical study when I noticed all four DP Scoreboard indexes had PMO tops below the zero line after a very oversold reading. This is just "eyeballing" the previous bear markets on the charts and discovering similarities. Let's start with the three new PMO SELL signals that appeared on the DecisionPoint Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Weekly Wrap: Does SPY Have Bullish Reverse H&S? Gold Sentiment Is Looking Contrarian

by Carl Swenlin

A lot of people are seeing a reverse head and shoulders pattern developing, and it is really not hard to spot. From Friday's close, it will take a rally of a little less than 3% for price to reach the neckline. Add another 4.5% and new, all-time highs will be made. Some indicators favoring a positive resolution are: (1) contracting volume across the head and right shoulder; (2) the OBV reverse divergence; and (3) the PMO is confirming by bottoming above the signal line. Some negative factors are: (1) the bull market trend line has been broken; (2) the formation is too close to the all-time Read More 

DecisionPoint

DP Alert: Two More ST SELL Signals - Monthly PMO SELL Signals Likely

by Erin Swenlin

Before I get into the nitty gritty here, I want to relate a story of what literally (yes, literally) just happened to me about 10 minutes ago. I got a text from my 10-year old nephew, "Is there anyway I can check what is happening to the Nestle stock in the future?" Mind you, this has never happened, even remotely. Let's just say that my Dad and I are the only family members who talk about the market. My brother said that he was likely interested because he found out that Nestle owns a lot of other companies and brands (and he likes chocolate). So, being the good Aunt that I am, I Read More 

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