Commodities Countdown

Greg Schnell
About the author: , CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. Based in Calgary, he is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the chairman of the CSTA Calgary chapter. He is also the author of Stock Charts for Dummies (Wiley, 2018).

Latest Posts

Commodities Countdown

Wild Week Of Reversals 2018-07-20 Video

by Greg Schnell

This week saw most of the commodities continue lower. Wheat actually moved above the 10 Week moving average. All of the rest of the commodities are below. It is not very often everything is this beaten down. The $SPX was flat for the week. The US dollar dropped hard on Friday back into the middle of the two month trading range. As well the bond prices fell away from resistance pushing the long end of the yield curve higher. Gold has some nice buying wicks for the last three days in one of the most unloved areas of the market. It is already up $20 off the lows of Wednesday. Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Get Smoked 2018-07-13 Video

by Greg Schnell

Commodities took it on the chin again this week, but the market messages could not be more confusing. While commodities fell hard, all the commodity countries made higher highs and higher lows on the week. The only commodity above the 10 WMA is oil. Copper fell again for the fifth week in a row. Gold and Silver stocks fell hard as the Yen broke its trend line. Let's get into the charts. Here is crude oil. It is still holding above the 10 week moving average. A small signal is a rollover of the PPO on the daily chart. Natural Gas fell hard this week but Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Does The US Dollar Complete The Rollover? 2018-07-06 Video

by Greg Schnell

This week's Commodities Countdown video is jam packed with changes. Does the US Dollar complete the rollover? Do the bonds break through resistance on the price and momentum charts? The next few weeks are really important for the bond markets based on my work. Most of the Commodities moved under or are still under the 10 week moving average. The 800 pound gorilla exception to that is oil. Crude oil makes up 23% of the $CRB Index.  Let's start with the Dollar. With lots of negative divergence the Dollar looks set to break lower. This should be a meaningful move in the dollar that Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Oil Surges to Fresh Highs 2018-06-29 Video

by Greg Schnell

In another bizarre week for Commodities, the excitement continues. The Industrial metals continued to fall, Soybean and Wheat also let go. Oil, Gasoline, and Heating Oil all rallied. Gold dropped and finally had a mini rally on Friday. Gold mining stocks soared relative to Gold which continues to be a trade idea I like. Notice the surge in the top panel. This is the ratio of Gold Miners to Gold. When it surges higher, the Gold mining stocks are outperforming which is usually a great place to get bullish.  Here is a longer term picture. When gold miners Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Can Commodities Roar Back ? 2018-06-22 Video

by Greg Schnell

What a wild week for Commodities and Currencies! It has been a battle for about a month and last week the entire commodity complex was under pressure as the US Dollar moved back toward 94. This week it looks like the US Dollar is rolling over at resistance which sent some commodity related stocks surging. On the chart above, the divergence between the May high and the June high is critical to note. This lower high is what we would expect if this was going to retrace.  The next chart looks at the US Dollar on a weekly chart where the momentum shown on Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodities Get Smoked 2018-06-15 - Video

by Greg Schnell

Well, after the big buildup of the last two recordings, we saw the dramatic climax to the big buildup in tension. Oil, Gasoline, Heating oil, Copper, Steel, Aluminum, Rare earth metals, Coal, Natural Gas stocks, Gold and Silver all had a bad week. With the G7 meeting, the Singapore summit, another Fed meeting on Wednesday, Mario Draghi speaking on Thursday and Quadruple Witching Options Expiration on Friday, the week was loaded for drama. While the indexes were moderate for the week, the commodities got smoked.  Oil wasn't too bad, but the stocks around oil, spilled! Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Big Week For Commodities 2018-06-08

by Greg Schnell

Well, the tension in the commodities space couldn't be much higher. Oil has pulled back 10%, Natgas can't get out of its own way. Gold continues to do nothing, Copper exploded higher, rare earth metals broke lower, Silver broke a trend line, Soybean and Corn dropped. What a mixed basket.  A look at the USD is always important and this week, it looks like it is trying to roll over. The MACD is right at zero so this is a very important point for the dollar. A break higher here, suggests a return of the $USD bull market. A break down here pretty much marks the final high on a big Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Sector Reversals In US Markets

by Greg Schnell

The wobble in the market on Tuesday was quite significant. This appeared to start last week with the reversal in oil and bonds. Crude is hovering around the 50 day moving average. You can see on the chart below, the 50 MA is pretty important. Watch for this low to hold. On the video I talked about the $66.66 level from January to see if support / resistance would hold. Take note that the related stock ETF's are still well above the 50 MA.  FRAK, the unconventional oil ETF, broke through a big downtrend last week but rolled over last week Read More 

Commodities Countdown

Commodity Volatility 2018-05-18 Video

by Greg Schnell

I posted an additional article regarding this weeks video. This is a link specific to the video. The US Dollar is working real hard against the commodity up trend, but some of the commodities cannot be suppressed. Oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, Gasoline, and KOL are all soaring.  I mentioned a few weeks ago that the marijuana stocks were starting to soar. Jim Cramer interviewed the Canopy Growth Corporation CEO Friday and that sent the whole industry group surging. The chart shape is great so I would look for this trend to continue into the summer. Below is the Canadian listing for Read More 

Commodities Countdown

The Commodity Market Pressures Heat Up

by Greg Schnell

Well, another challenging week for Commodities investors. A sudden surge in the $USD early in the week sent gold traders reeling and industrial metals trading pondering the recent breakouts. I have shown the UUP where you can see the large gap early in the week. As the Dollar approaches resistance, this week will be filled with some volatility. On a bigger scale, the level the dollar is currently approaching is very important. You can also see the 94.86 level that is shown on the UUP chart above in November. Needless to say Read More 

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