Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Tushar Chande
About the author: , PhD, MBA, is the inventor behind an impressive collection of technical indicators, including the Aroon and Stochastic RSI. He has written several books, holds both a PhD in Engineering and an MBA in Finance, and has over two decades of experience trading the financial markets. Follow Tushar in this blog as he highlights his new "Trend Meter" indicator and shares his analysis of current market conditions.

Latest Posts

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

A Workaround for the Greg Morris Weight of Evidence Trading Model (the Chande Trend Meter).

by Tushar Chande

Greg Morris has written a wonderful series of posts on developing a trend-following system, essential reading for all serious traders.  In his most recent post on the subject, he summarizes the nine indicators used in the model, and shows the Morris Weight of Evidence (WOE) indicator applied to the NASDAQ Composite index (see Chart 1).  Unfortunately, it is not possible to easily plot the WOE at the moment.  I have a possible work-around for fans of Greg Morris's WOE indicator.  I will show that the Chande Trend Meter (CTM), which is also based on a trend-following Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Flavor of the Month: McCormick and Co. (MKC)

by Tushar Chande

McCormick’s (MKC), the spice and flavoring maker, just broke out to 52-week highs.  It is a good example of fundamental analysts colliding with technical analysis: six out of eight equity analysts rate MKC a hold, with one on a sell signal.   Earnings have surprised mildly to the upside, and management is upbeat.   The uncertainty in the market has put a bid under defensive stocks:  utilities have become the strongest sector in the S&P 500, and even though most of the top ranked stocks in the S&P 500 universe are utilities or REITs , MKC is the lone Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

It's A Fish Market!

by Tushar Chande

It's not a bull market.  It's not a bear market.  It's a fish market.  As in a fish flopping around on the dock.  Even as small stocks and technology stocks made new highs, the broad market has moved sideways this year.   A headline overload has made traders jumpy, as trade wars spook markets and earnings guidance dominates short term moves. The rest of the year is unlikely to reduce headline headaches.  So this market may continue to flounder about for a while, which would be consistent with my forecast for 2018.   Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Simple Scan Code to Find Smoothly Trending Stocks with Chande Trend Meter

by Tushar Chande

Sometimes a stock takes on a life of its own, and trends smoothly for days on end.  All we can do is search for these stocks, and trade with care, since we do not know exactly how long they will continue to out-perform the market.  The Chande Trend Meter is a powerful tool for finding such stocks, and here is a simple scan code to look for such stocks.   Chart 1: MORN was at the top of the list for the scan code below.     The Scan Code   Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Organizing Your Trading Strategy By Trend Strength (Or, How to Make Sense of Jim Cramer's Stock Picks)

by Tushar Chande

If you watch Jim Cramer's Mad Money show on CNBC for a week, you will hear about so many stock picks (symbols) that it might drive you crazy.  He spews so many symbols, that in a month's time you will  be easily overwhelmed.  So here is a useful chart to put into perspective any stock picks you encounter in the mass media or blogs such as this one.   Chart 1:  The stocks in the S&P 500 universe are distributed along a line stretching from lower left (weakest stocks) to the upper right (strongest stocks).  Many stocks are in a neutral zone, roughly Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

How High for the Summer Rally?

by Tushar Chande

Green shoots of a summer rally appeared this week after the Dow cracked resistance at 25,000 and held the breakout.  The summer rally is often viewed as a 13% move from the lows in May/June to the highs in July/August/September.  This week the market made it about half way there (see Chart 1).   There is much resistance overhead, but the market if off to a good start towards a Summer Rally this year.   Chart 1: The historical range for the summer rally is about 13% from the May/June lows to the summer highs, and we are off to a good start. Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

My S&P 500 Year-End Forecast is More Pessimistic than Wall Street's

by Tushar Chande

Do earnings mean anything as geopolitical uncertainties move to the front burner?  Earnings and P/E ratios are what Wall Street uses for its forecasts, but will these forecasts be swamped by current events or future crises?  In December, 2017, I predicted a 2018 year-end close of 2750 on the $SPX (see Chart 1), and I expected a flat and volatile year.  After zooming higher in January, the market has come down to my forecast line (see Figure 2).  The most recent Wall Street forecasts range from 2750-3150 (see Chart 2), spanning the upper region of my year-end forecast Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Small Caps and Technology Lead as Broad Market Builds Support

by Tushar Chande

The market's internals have improved since the double bottom and small cap and technology stocks are comfortably ahead of the large stock indexes on a YTD basis (see Figure 1).  This is bullish for the market as a whole, even as indexes pause to build support (see Figure 2).  The underlying trend picture has improved on an index basis (see Figure 3) and capitalization basis (see Figure 4).  The dollar is strong, along with Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) (see Figure 5).  Commodities and disk drive makers are the strongest industry groups (see Figure Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Top Trending Small-Cap Stocks and ETFs

by Tushar Chande

Even as the Small-cap index rises to new highs, mid-, large- and mega-cap indexes are barely clearing their April highs.  So, I have scanned the database and identified the top trending small-cap stocks and ETFs for your review.  In an earlier post, I managed to pinpoint the major turning point within two days of a key low, and the markets have since moved higher without make new lows.  I will update below a key chart from that post so you can judge for yourself.   Chart 1: The S&P 600 Small-Cap index (middle chart, lower row) rose to new all-time highs, but the Read More 

Trend Check with Tushar Chande

Are Bulls Too Pessimistic Even as Data Break Their Way?

by Tushar Chande

All the data reported this week broke in favor of the bulls: strong earnings from Apple, the Federal Reserve remains committed to 2-3 (not four) rate hikes this year, and job creation was steady without rising wage pressures. Overall earnings, guidance and dividend data were also excellent.  Lastly, the Mnuchin Mission to China produced soothing statements suggesting more talks but no immediate crisis.  Other than stormy clouds over the nation's capital, the bulls should be empowered to seize the initiative.   Chart 1: The all-important Apple stock, with its very large Read More 

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